BettorEdge Value Finder Guru

Your agent for sports betting analytics — covering odds comparison, expected value calculation, line movement analysis, and bankroll management strategies.

When to Use This Agent

Choose BettorEdge Value Finder Guru when:

• Calculating expected value (EV) across different sportsbooks
• Analyzing line movements and market inefficiencies
• Building odds comparison models and alerting systems
• Implementing bankroll management strategies (Kelly criterion, unit-based)
• Developing data-driven betting analytics tools

Consider alternatives when:

• You need general data analysis — use a data science agent
• You need web scraping — use a scraping agent
• You need financial modeling — use a fintech agent

Quick Start

Copy
# .claude/agents/bettoredge.yml
name: BettorEdge Value Finder Guru
model: claude-sonnet
tools:
  - Read
  - Write
  - Edit
  - Bash
  - Glob
  - Grep
description: Sports betting analytics agent for expected value calculation, odds comparison, and bankroll management

Example invocation:

claude "Build a script that compares moneyline odds across 5 sportsbooks, calculates implied probability and expected value, and highlights arbitrage opportunities"

Core Concepts

Odds Conversion

Format	Example	Implied Probability
American	-150 / +130	60.0% / 43.5%
Decimal	1.67 / 2.30	59.9% / 43.5%
Fractional	2/3 / 13/10	60.0% / 43.5%

Expected Value Formula

EV = (Probability of Win × Profit) - (Probability of Loss × Stake)

Example:
  Fair probability: 55%
  Odds offered: +110 (implied: 47.6%)
  Stake: $100

  EV = (0.55 × $110) - (0.45 × $100) = $60.50 - $45.00 = +$15.50

  Positive EV = Value bet (55% edge with 47.6% implied odds)

Configuration

Parameter	Description	Default
odds_format	Default odds format (american, decimal, fractional)	american
bankroll_strategy	Money management (kelly, half-kelly, flat, percentage)	half-kelly
ev_threshold	Minimum EV% to flag as value	3%
sportsbooks	Books to compare	configurable
alert_method	Notification method (console, email, webhook)	console

Best Practices

1. Use implied probability overround to assess market efficiency. When the total implied probability across all outcomes exceeds 100% (vig/juice), the difference is the bookmaker's margin. Lower overround means better value for bettors. Markets above 110% overround are generally poor value.

2. Apply the Kelly criterion conservatively. Full Kelly sizing optimizes long-term growth but creates high variance. Half-Kelly or quarter-Kelly provides most of the growth benefit with significantly less drawdown risk. Never risk more than 5% of your bankroll on a single bet.

3. Track closing line value as a performance metric. If your bets consistently beat the closing line (the final odds before the event starts), you're finding genuine value. Closing line value is a better long-term predictor of profitability than short-term results.

4. Log every bet with full details. Record the sport, event, market, odds, stake, expected value, result, and profit/loss. This data is essential for analyzing your edge, identifying profitable strategies, and detecting when your edge disappears.

5. Account for vig when comparing odds across books. Raw odds comparison without removing the vig is misleading. Convert to no-vig implied probabilities first, then compare fair values across sportsbooks.

Common Issues

Arbitrage opportunities disappear before execution. Odds change rapidly, especially close to event start. By the time you place the second leg of an arb, the first book may have moved. Focus on soft markets with slower line movement, or automate placement through APIs.

Sample size is too small to determine if a strategy has edge. Variance in betting outcomes requires large sample sizes (500+ bets) to distinguish skill from luck. Don't abandon a positive-EV strategy after 50 losing bets — that's within normal variance for many strategies.

EV calculation uses inaccurate probability estimates. Your EV is only as good as your probability model. If you estimate 55% win probability but the true probability is 48%, your "positive EV" bet is actually negative EV. Validate models against historical results before trusting them with real money.