Quick Business Scenario Explorer

Rapidly model multiple business timeline scenarios with probability-weighted outcomes, risk matrices, and strategic recommendations for informed decision-making.

When to Use This Command

Run this command when...

• You need to evaluate competing strategic directions such as market entry, product launch, or funding round timing before committing resources
• You want to stress-test a business plan against optimistic, pessimistic, and disruption scenarios with quantified probability estimates
• Your executive team requires a structured scenario matrix for board presentations or investor conversations

Do NOT use this command when...

• You need real-time financial modeling with live data feeds -- use a dedicated BI tool instead
• You are looking for a single deterministic forecast rather than multiple divergent scenario paths

Quick Start

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# .claude/commands/quick-business-scenario-explorer.md
# Quick business scenario exploration
Explore business scenarios for: $ARGUMENTS

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# Run the command
claude "quick-business-scenario-explorer expand into European market Q3 2026"

Expected output:
- Baseline scenario with 60% probability weighting
- Optimistic and pessimistic timeline branches
- Disruption scenario analysis
- Risk-adjusted strategic recommendations
- Decision matrix with go/no-go criteria

Core Concepts

Concept	Description
Scenario Framework	Structured set of baseline, optimistic, pessimistic, and disruption paths
Probability Weighting	Each scenario receives a likelihood percentage based on market signals
Constraint Analysis	Resource, regulatory, and operational limits bounding each scenario
Decision Optimization	Risk-adjusted recommendations linked to specific trigger conditions
Strategic Integration	Maps scenarios to concrete resource allocation and contingency plans

Scenario Branching Structure:

  Current State
       |
   [Analysis]
       |
  +----+----+----+----+
  |    |    |    |    |
 Base Opt  Pess Disrupt Constraint
 60%  15%  15%   5%     5%
  |    |    |    |    |
  +----+----+----+----+
       |
  Decision Matrix
       |
  Recommendations

Configuration

Parameter	Default	Description
Time Horizon	1-3 years	How far forward scenarios project
Scenario Count	4-6	Number of distinct scenario branches generated
Risk Tolerance	Medium	Adjusts weighting toward conservative or aggressive paths
Data Sources	README + docs	Business context files scanned for inputs
Output Format	Matrix	Tabular scenario comparison with probability weights

Best Practices

1. Provide concrete context -- include current revenue, market size, and competitive position in your arguments so scenarios are grounded in real numbers rather than generic projections
2. Specify the decision at stake -- frame the exploration around a specific choice such as "enter market X vs. double down on market Y" for sharper scenario differentiation
3. Set explicit time horizons -- scenarios spanning 1 year differ fundamentally from 5-year projections, so state your planning window upfront
4. Iterate with constraints -- run the command once broadly, then re-run with specific constraints like "budget capped at 2M" to narrow the solution space
5. Cross-reference with Monte Carlo -- pair this command with monte-carlo-simulator-runner for statistical validation of probability assumptions

Common Issues

1. Scenarios feel too generic -- this happens when arguments lack specificity. Include industry, geography, revenue figures, and the exact decision being evaluated to get tailored outputs
2. Probability weights seem arbitrary -- the model derives weights from the context you provide. Supply historical data, market reports, or competitive benchmarks to improve calibration
3. Too many scenarios to act on -- narrow your focus by specifying "compare only expansion vs. consolidation" rather than open-ended exploration